Live Cattle (LE) – Knowledge
Contract specs • Seasonality • Cattle cycle • COT • Reports • Production • Trading notes
1️⃣ Contract Specifications
| Exchange / Symbol | CME / LE (Live Cattle) |
|---|---|
| Contract Size | 40,000 lb live steers (≈ 18,144 kg) |
| Tick Size | $0.00025/lb = $10 per contract |
| Point Value | $0.01/lb = $400 per contract |
| Contract Months | Feb, Apr, Jun, Aug, Oct, Dec |
| Settlement | Physical delivery (designated delivery points/grades) |
| Margin (Indicative) | ~$2,000–$3,000 initial (volatility & broker dependent) |
| Trading Hours (U.S. / EU) | CME Globex (electronic): ~08:30 – 13:05 CT → ~15:30 – 20:05 CET (Winter) • ~15:30 – 20:05 CEST (Sommer) |
| Last Trading Day | Typically the last business day of the contract month (see CME rulebook) |
| Commission Example | ~$2.50–$3.50 / side (Futures) or CFD equivalent |
2️⃣ Seasonality Overview
Live Cattle reflects beef demand cycles (retail, grilling season) and the cattle production cycle. Historisch festigt der Markt oft in Q1–Frühjahr und zeigt Schwäche in Spätsommer–Herbst.
- 📈 Bullish window: Feb – May (Frühlings-/Grilling-Nachfrage)
- 📉 Bearish window: Aug – Oct (höhere Angebotsphasen)
- Neutral/variabel: Nov – Jan
Seasonal reference: 10–15y averages on CME Live Cattle continuous.
3️⃣ Cattle Cycle – Key Phases
| Phase | Timing (typisch, US) | Market Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Calving & Cow-Calf | Jan – Mar (varies by region) | Herd growth/shrink; weather risk |
| Pasture Turn-out | Apr – May | Grass conditions → weight gains |
| Feedlot Placements | Sommer/Herbst Peaks | Impacts future marketings |
| Marketings / Slaughter | Rollierend | Beef production flows → price |
Hinweis: Feeder Cattle (GF) Preise & Corn-Kosten steuern Placements/Feeddauer.
4️⃣ COT Insights
Commercials (Packers/Processors) hedgen Forward-Einkäufe/Verkäufe, während Managed Money eher trendfolgt. Nützlich sind COT-Extreme in Kombination mit Preis/VWAP-Struktur und Spreads vs. Feeder Cattle (GF).
- COT Index > 85 → spekulative Long-Sättigung / Korrekturgefahr
- COT Index < 15 → potenzieller Washout / Reversal-Zone
- Commercial Shorts steigen oft bei Preisstärke (Absicherungen)
Reference: CFTC “Live Cattle – CME”.
5️⃣ Key Reports & Data Releases
| Report | Agency | Frequency / Timing |
|---|---|---|
| Cattle on Feed (placements, marketings, on-feed) | USDA | Monthly (late month) |
| Livestock, Dairy & Poultry Outlook | USDA/ERS | Monthly |
| Cold Storage (beef stocks) | USDA | Monthly |
| Weekly Slaughter/Cutout (boxed beef) | USDA/AMS | Weekly |
| Export Sales (beef) | USDA | Weekly (Thu) |
| COT Report | CFTC | Weekly, Fri 21:30 CET |
| Macro (FOMC, CPI, NFP) | Fed/BLS | Monthly |
6️⃣ Global Production & Trade
Die globale Rindfleisch-Produktion wird von USA, Brasilien, China, EU und Indien geprägt; Exportflüsse dominieren Brasilien, USA, Australien. Nachfrageimpulse kommen aus USA, China, Japan, Südkorea und dem Mittleren Osten.
- Top producers: USA, Brazil, China, EU, India, Argentina, Australia
- Export leaders: Brazil, USA, Australia, New Zealand
- Key importers: China, Japan, South Korea, EU, Middle East
7️⃣ Production Costs & Market Drivers
| Driver | Impact | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Feed Costs (Corn/Meal) | ↑ feed → ↑ finishing cost → supply shifts | Watch ZC/ZM |
| Pasture/Weather (drought) | Herd liquidation/build cycles | Forage & water availability |
| Packers’ Margins / Cutout | Processing economics → demand for cattle | Boxed beef/kill rates |
| FX & Export Demand | Competitiveness & global flows | USD vs competitors |
8️⃣ Correlations & Proxies
- Feeder Cattle (GF) & Corn (ZC) – Kosten/Platzierungslogik
- Retail demand seasonality (grilling)
- ETF/CFD proxies: Live Cattle CFDs; livestock baskets
9️⃣ Trading Notes / My Take
LE ist sauber handelbar, aber news- und berichtsgetrieben. Ich synchronisiere Setups mit Cattle on Feed, Cutout/Slaughter-Trends, COT-Extremen und VWAP-Clustern. Liquidität am besten zur US-Day-Session (~15:30–20:05 CET/CEST).
- Seasonal long bias: Feb–May; Schwäche: Aug–Oct
- Feed-Kosten (ZC) & Feeder-Spreads beachten
- Positionsgröße konservativ um Monatsberichte