Cocoa (CC) – Knowledge
Contract specs • Seasonality • Harvest cycle • COT • Reports • Production • Trading notes
1️⃣ Contract Specifications
| Exchange / Symbol | ICE U.S. / CC (Cocoa) |
|---|---|
| Underlying | Exchange-grade cocoa beans (specified origins/grades) |
| Contract Size | 10 metric tons (≈ 22,046 lb) |
| Tick Size | $1 per metric ton = $10 per contract |
| Point Value | $10 per $1 move; $100 per $10 |
| Contract Months | Mar, May, Jul, Sep, Dec |
| Settlement | Physical delivery (licensed warehouses; origin differentials apply) |
| Margin (Indicative) | ~$2,500–$3,500 initial (vol dependent, broker/exchange) |
| Trading Hours (US/EU) | ICE electronic trading spans both US & EU sessions; times vary with US/EU DST. Tip: Check latest ICE hours (New York time) and convert to CET/CEST. |
| Last Trading Day | Per ICE cocoa rulebook (month-specific, pre-delivery cutoff) |
| Commission Example | ~$2.50–$3.50 / side (Futures) or CFD equivalent |
2️⃣ Seasonality Overview
Cocoa seasonality reflects West Africa’s main and mid-crops, weather (harmattan, rainfall), and export flow. Prices often firm into late Q3–Q4 on mid-crop uncertainty and logistics, with corrective phases post-peak shipments.
- 📈 Bullish tendency: Sep – Jan (mid-crop risk, Q4 demand)
- 📉 Bearish tendency: Mar – Jun (post main-crop, heavier shipments)
- Event risk: Harmattan dryness (Dec–Feb), disease (CSSV/Black Pod)
Seasonal reference: 10–15y average on ICE Cocoa continuous.
3️⃣ Crop Calendar & Harvest Windows
| Region | Main Crop | Mid-Crop |
|---|---|---|
| Côte d’Ivoire | Oct – Mar | Apr – Aug |
| Ghana | Oct – Feb | May – Aug |
| Nigeria / Cameroon | Oct – Feb | Apr – Jul |
| Brazil (Bahia/Para) | May – Aug | Oct – Jan |
| Ecuador / Peru | Apr – Jul | Sep – Dec |
Shipment lags and port logistics can shift the price impact vs on-farm harvest timing.
4️⃣ COT Insights
Cocoa’s COT often shows commercial hedging (exporters/processors) vs trend-following funds. Signals are strongest at extremes and when aligned with weather/flow headlines and VWAP structure.
- COT Index > 85 → long saturation risk
- COT Index < 15 → potential washout / reversal zone
- Commercial shorts rise into price strength (forward sales hedging)
Reference: CFTC “Cocoa – ICE U.S.”
5️⃣ Key Reports & Data Releases
| Report | Agency | Frequency / Timing |
|---|---|---|
| ICCO Market Reports (supply/demand, grindings) | International Cocoa Organization | Monthly / Quarterly |
| Origin Arrivals / Port Deliveries | Trade/Export data (Ivory Coast, Ghana) | Weekly / Monthly |
| Grindings (EU/NA/Asia) | Industry Associations | Quarterly |
| Weather (West Africa) | NOAA/ECMWF | Ongoing |
| COT Report | CFTC | Weekly, Fri 21:30 CET |
6️⃣ Global Production & Trade
Cocoa supply is concentrated in West Africa, with Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana producing over half the world’s beans. Latin America contributes premium/flavor beans (Ecuador, Peru), while Asia remains smaller but relevant.
- Top producers: Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria, Cameroon, Ecuador, Brazil, Peru
- Exporters: West Africa dominates bulk shipments
- Importers/Processors: EU, USA, Asia (Indonesia/Malaysia for grindings)
7️⃣ Production Costs & Market Drivers
| Driver | Impact | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Weather (harmattan/rainfall) | Yield & quality swing | Dry winds reduce pods/beansize |
| Crop disease (CSSV, black pod) | Supply shocks | Sanitation & replanting cycles |
| Farm-gate price policy | Farmer incentives → supply | COCOBOD / CCC seasonal pricing |
| Logistics & port flow | Shipment delays → spreads | Warehouse stocks matter |
8️⃣ Correlations & Proxies
- Demand link: confectionery consumption (seasonal Q4 peaks)
- FX: Producer currencies (GHS, XOF) indirectly via policy
- ETF/CFD proxies: Cocoa CFDs; softs baskets
9️⃣ Trading Notes / My Take
Cocoa kann abrupt reagieren (Wetter/Ankunftsdaten). Ich kombiniere COT-Extreme mit VWAP/Volume-Clustern und beachte Grindings, Origin arrivals und Harmattan-Updates. Liquidität gut, Spreads in ruhigen Phasen beachten.
- Seasonal long bias: Sep–Jan
- Schwächepotenzial: Mar–Jun (post main-crop)
- Positionsgröße wegen News-Risiko konservativ halten