Coffee ‘C’ (KC) – Knowledge
Contract specs • Seasonality • Harvest cycle • COT • Reports • Production • Trading notes
1️⃣ Contract Specifications
| Exchange / Symbol | ICE U.S. / KC (Arabica Coffee “C”) |
|---|---|
| Underlying | Exchange-grade washed Arabica coffee |
| Contract Size | 37,500 lb (~17.01 metric tons) |
| Tick Size | 0.05¢/lb = $18.75 per contract |
| Point Value | 1.00¢/lb = $375.00 per contract |
| Contract Months | Mar, May, Jul, Sep, Dec |
| Settlement | Physical delivery (bags at ICE-licensed warehouses/origins) |
| Margin (Indicative) | ~$2,500 initial / varies by broker & vol |
| Trading Hours (US / EU) | ICE electronic trading spans US & EU sessions (hours vary with US/EU DST). Tip: Always verify current ICE trading hours (NY time) and convert to CET/CEST. |
| Last Trading Day | Per ICE coffee contract rulebook (pre-delivery month cutoff) |
| Commission Example | ~$2.50–$3.50 / side (Futures) or CFD equivalent |
2️⃣ Seasonality Overview
Coffee’s seasonality is shaped by Brazil’s harvest, Central American export flow, weather (frost risk in Brazil’s winter) and currency moves (BRL/USD). Historically, prices tend to firm into late Q4–Q1 and soften around the main Brazil harvest.
- 📈 Bullish tendency: Nov – Mar (tightening export flow, weather risk)
- 📉 Bearish tendency: May – Sep (Brazil harvest pressure)
- Event-risk: Frost risk in Brazil (Jun–Aug), flowering risk (Sep–Oct)
Seasonal reference: 10–15y average on ICE Coffee ‘C’ continuous.
3️⃣ Harvest & Crop Cycle (perennial)
Coffee is a perennial tree crop (not annual): key phases are flowering, cherry development and harvest. Timing varies by origin.
| Region / Origin | Key Phases | Harvest Window |
|---|---|---|
| Brazil (Arabica) | Flowering: Sep–Oct • Frost risk: Jun–Aug | May – Sep |
| Colombia | Main + “mitaca” (two crops) | Main: Oct–Dec • Mitaca: Apr–Jun |
| Central America (Honduras, Guatemala, etc.) | Flowering: Apr–May | Nov – Mar |
| Africa (Ethiopia) | Flowering: Aug–Sep | Nov – Jan |
| Vietnam (Robusta – reference) | Flowering: Apr–May | Oct – Dec |
4️⃣ COT Insights
Managed money in Coffee tends to be strongly trend-following, while commercials (exporters, roasters) hedge forward. Signals around weather & currency shocks can be powerful when aligned with price/VWAP structure.
- COT Index > 85 → long saturation / correction risk
- COT Index < 15 → washout / potential reversal zone
- Watch BRL/USD: stronger BRL often supports coffee prices
Reference: CFTC “Coffee ‘C’ – ICE U.S.”
5️⃣ Key Reports & Data Releases
| Report | Agency | Frequency / Timing |
|---|---|---|
| ICO Coffee Market Reports / Stats | International Coffee Organization | Monthly |
| CONAB / Brazil crop updates | CONAB (Brazil) | Seasonal / Monthly |
| ICE Certified Stocks | ICE | Daily / Weekly |
| USDA Coffee GAIN reports | USDA | Ad-hoc / Seasonal |
| COT Report | CFTC | Weekly, Fri 21:30 CET |
| Macro & FX | Fed/BLS, Market | Monthly (FOMC/CPI/NFP), ongoing (BRL/USD) |
6️⃣ Global Production & Trade
Arabica dominates ICE Coffee ‘C’. Global output is led by Brazil and Colombia (Arabica) and Vietnam (Robusta, cross-market impact). Trade flows hinge on weather, farm economics, and FX (especially BRL).
- Top Arabica producers: Brazil, Colombia, Ethiopia, Honduras, Peru
- Key exporters: Brazil, Colombia, Honduras, Peru
- Major importers: EU, USA, Japan, South Korea
7️⃣ Production Costs & Market Drivers
| Driver | Impact | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Weather (Brazil) | Frost/drought shocks → price spikes | Monitor Jun–Aug frost, Sep–Oct flowering |
| FX (BRL/USD) | ↑ BRL → ↓ exports → ↑ prices | Exporter currency effect |
| Certified Stocks (ICE) | Falling stocks → tighter spreads | Watch inventory trends |
| Logistics / freight | ↑ costs → ↑ delivered prices | Port congestion & insurance |
8️⃣ Correlations & Proxies
- Currency link: BRL/USD
- Cross-market: Robusta (ICE Europe “RC”)
- Risk assets & EM sentiment can influence flows
- ETF/CFD proxies: Coffee CFDs; broad softs ETFs
9️⃣ Trading Notes / My Take
Coffee bewegt sich schnell auf News (Wetter/FX). Ich kombiniere COT-Extremzonen mit VWAP-Struktur und beobachte ICE-Stocks sowie BRL. Beste Liquidität typischerweise während der US-Session; Spreads können in ruhigen Phasen anziehen.
- Seasonal long bias: Nov–Mar
- Harvest pressure: May–Sep (Brazil)
- Frost-/Flowering-Risk aktiv managen (Positionsgröße/Stops)