WASDE Explained — Why It Moves Grain Markets

The WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) is one of the most important catalysts for price movement in global grain markets. For Corn, Wheat and Soybeans – and also for Cattle, Cotton and other agricultural markets – it provides the key numbers that define supply, demand, exports, ending stocks and the global balance.

For day traders, swing traders and seasonal strategies it is often the monthly volatility event with recurring reaction patterns.

1. What WASDE actually is

WASDE is published monthly by the USDA. It consolidates all global estimates on:

• Production
• Domestic use
• Exports
• Feed demand
• Crush demand (especially Soybeans)
• Ending stocks (US & global)
• Yield (for Corn and Soybeans)
• Planted & harvested acres

It is effectively a one-stop report: all countries, all crops, all flows – in one file.

Release

• Every month (typically between the 10th and 12th)
• 12:00 ET / 18:00 CET
• Major market-moving event for: ZC (Corn), ZS (Soybeans), ZW (Wheat), KC (Coffee), CT (Cotton) and more.

2. The structure of the report

WASDE follows a stable structure from month to month, which makes it easier to read and compare across time.

A) US balance sheets

For each major crop, the report provides a full US supply–demand balance sheet.

Corn (ZC)

• Planted acres
• Harvested acres
• Yield per acre
• Production
• Feed & residual
• Ethanol use
• Exports
• Ending stocks

Soybeans (ZS)

• Planted and harvested area
• Crush demand
• Residual use
• Ending stocks

Wheat (ZW)

• Domestic use
• Imports
• Exports
• Ending stocks

B) World balance sheet

For each crop, WASDE includes a world balance sheet with:

• Production by country
• Imports and exports
• Consumption
• Ending stocks

Key players include:

• Corn: US, Brazil, Argentina, China
• Soybeans: Brazil, US, Argentina, China
• Wheat: US, Russia, EU, Australia, Canada

Wheat is the most global, Corn is the most US-centric, and Soybeans are heavily shaped by Brazil.

C) Price projections

The USDA also publishes:

• Average farm price projections
• Export price expectations
• Implications for crush margins and ethanol demand

These can indirectly move fertilizer, ethanol and livestock markets.

3. Why WASDE moves markets

Grain markets trade on relatively small marginal changes in:

• Yield
• Production
• Acres
• Ending stocks
• Global trade flows

A change of +1 bushel per acre in US corn yield is already a big deal: with around 90 million planted acres, this means roughly 90 million additional or missing bushels.

Markets trade expectations. WASDE moves prices because it shifts the expectation curve.

4. Typical reaction patterns

WASDE releases show recurring price patterns that are highly relevant for futures and CFD traders.

A) Volatility on release

The most sensitive contracts are: ZC, ZS, ZL/ZM and ZW. Moves of 1–3% within minutes are common.

B) First move = liquidity sweep

1. Stops are often triggered in both directions.
2. The initial direction is frequently reversed within 3–5 minutes.
3. The “true move” tends to emerge after this initial noise.

C) Corn: most sensitive to yield

Especially between July and September, when weather and yield expectations matter most. Bullish surprises (higher yield risk, tighter stocks) can cause sharp spikes, while bearish surprises lead to immediate drops. Corn tends to react more cleanly and aggressively than Wheat.

D) Soybeans: driven by global flows

Soybeans react strongly to:

• Brazilian crop estimates
• Crush demand
• Chinese import demand

ZS often moves in two steps: first on US numbers, then on the world section as the market digests Brazilian and Chinese data.

E) Wheat: the most chaotic

Wheat responds to a large number of producers and exporters. Russian and European crop estimates, weather across multiple continents and export competitiveness all influence price. Wheat’s reaction to WASDE can be very strong but less orderly and harder to model.

F) T+1 / T+2 pattern

Historical studies show that:

• T+1 (the day after WASDE) often reveals the true direction.
• T+2 shows follow-through when the report is clearly bullish or bearish.
• T+3 frequently brings some degree of mean reversion, especially in Wheat.

This is one reason why strategies with a T+3 time-based exit make sense.

5. What actually moves prices?

In practice, a few key line items drive most of the post-WASDE moves.

Corn (ZC)

• Yield per acre
• Planted and harvested acres
• Feed demand
• Ethanol demand
• Exports
• Ending stocks

Most price sensitive: yield and ending stocks.

Soybeans (ZS)

• Crush demand
• Export sales, especially to China
• Brazilian crop size and weather
• Argentine production and soy meal demand

Most price sensitive: export demand and Brazilian crop estimates.

Wheat (ZW)

• Russian and EU production
• Production in Australia and Canada
• Global ending stocks
• US export competitiveness

Wheat often reacts first to the global balance and second to the US domestic numbers.

6. Seasonal WASDE behaviour

Not all WASDE months are equal. Some releases are structurally more important than others.

High-impact months

• May: first balance sheet for the new crop year
• June: acreage adjustments
• July & August: yield uncertainty at its peak
• September: final yield expectations for many crops
• November: export and demand updates

Lower-impact months

• January
• February
• April

Wheat tends to react most strongly in:

• May–July (Northern hemisphere harvest)
• November–January (Southern hemisphere crops)

7. Strategic takeaways for traders

A) Do not trade the very first spike

The first 30–90 seconds after the release are often dominated by stop runs and poor liquidity.

B) Liquidity sweep → reversal → true trend

A recurring pattern around WASDE is:

1. Stop runs and noise just after the release
2. Short-term reversal of the first move
3. Emergence of the real directional move

C) Focus on T+1 and T+2

The day after WASDE (T+1) often provides cleaner entries for swing trades. T+2 can show whether the move has real follow-through.

D) Combine WASDE with Seasonality and COT

For grains, some of the best opportunities appear when:

• Seasonality points in the same direction,
• WASDE numbers confirm the seasonal bias, and
• COT positioning shows extremes in commercials or large speculators.

Examples include:

• Commercial hedgers net long near seasonal lows
• Large speculators heavily short before a bullish WASDE surprise

This combination can produce strong, trend-following moves.

8. How WASDE fits into a broader trading framework

WASDE integrates naturally with a broader analytical framework that includes seasonality, COT data and technical structure:

• Pre-WASDE filter: use COT and seasonal tendencies to define directional bias.
• Post-WASDE entries: look for T+1 / T+2 breakouts in Corn, Wheat and Soybeans.
• Risk management: ATR-based stops and a maximum drawdown per trade or per event.
• Exit logic: time-based exit around T+3 plus technical profit targets.

This creates a repeatable, monthly, data-driven approach that is largely uncorrelated with equity indices and grounded in fundamental supply–demand changes.